Eren Ege Çelik

Weather derivatives, three edges deep

Found a 4m44s informational edge in a state weather feed, traded it live, then retired the strategy when a 32-event out-of-sample scan measured every entry band negative.

World Cup cross-market relative value

A Monte Carlo standings model that reproduced live prices to ±0.02 before I sized it, then traded the lag when goals repriced the match market first. +$16 across four matches on a $30 bankroll.

Market efficiency in Polymarket's 5-minute BTC markets

Rejected my own maker strategy on fresh out-of-sample data at −0.98c per quote moment, then measured why the backtest had disagreed: it credited +$21 in the exact six slots where the live arm lost $31.

BTC 5-minute markets — a plain-language reference

The verifier-first protocol

Microstructure and Efficiency of Polymarket's 5-Minute Cryptocurrency Binary Markets